The JPL scientist, who arrived at the conclusion after studying “the historical record of atmospheric rivers,” summed it up by saying, “Overall, we’ll likely get more precipitation, but maybe less in terms of snowfall.” While that might sound great after so many dry, droughty years, he added that the wetter, warmer, stronger atmospheric rivers may contribute to more flooding.
Another scientist—this one a research meteorologist with the Earth Systems Research Laboratory at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration—found indicators of a wetter El Niño winter as well, by studying the relationship between the strength of previous years’ El Niños and the amount of rainfall they bring. “What we learned is weak El Niños don’t necessarily change the odds of precipitation being much different from normal,” he says. “The rare occurrence of a strong El Niño, like what we’re currently experiencing, however, greatly increases the odds of a wet California winter.”
· NASA examines global impacts of the 2015 El Nino [Phys.Org]
· How LA is Prepping to Take This Winter’s Monster El Niño [Curbed LA]
· There’s a 95 Percent Chance SoCal is Getting Hit With a Huge El Niño This Winter [Curbed LA]